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Welcome to my 5th Annual predictions for the upcoming year for Professional AV technology, trends and products. If you're a regular reader of this column, then you know that each year I actually start by reviewing my predictions from last year's column that appeared in the January issue of Sound & Communications magazine. Then, after the humbling experience of taking the time to rate how I did in predicting the trends of 2003, I will jump into my predictions for 2004.
So, here we go?
A Review of 2003
IT/AV convergence will be a central theme pervasive throughout the ProAV market in 2003: Although easy to predict given my fortunate relationships with the major manufacturers in the Professional AV market and understanding their new product feature sets, even the level of IT/AV convergence surprised me. Companies like Crestron and AMX have had network-enabled control systems for years, but now every major projector manufacturer, switcher manufacturer, plasma and LCD manufacturer have network-enabled products. The advantage of a network-enabled ProAV product is that they can not only be controlled via an Ethernet network (thus, the Internet), but in many cases they even allow for content delivery via the network (for example, sending PowerPoint slides from a PC to a projector via a standard network or wireless network connection). Although content delivery is not the holy grail of the ProAV market, yet, it may become a preferred way for routing and distributing video, audio and PC signals in AV systems one day.
An ROI on videoconferencing will finally come to the Professional AV Market: Although not exactly a VTC product, Sonic Foundry's MediaSiteLive (MSL) streaming video, audio and web server is darn close to the holy grail of the videoconferencing market. With MediaSiteLive, you have the capability to take any meeting or training application and stream it live to anywhere in the world via any speed Internet or Network connection. Although not as powerful as videoconferencing systems themselves, MediaSiteLive is simpler to use and is a heck of a lot more reliable when it comes to connecting to the meeting attendee remotely. This product is amazing. And, VTC manufacturers have stood up and taken notice. My sources tell me that Polycom is hurrying a MSL-like product to market for 2004. However, SonicFoundry has the momentum and you will soon see many of the industry leading training programs be capable of delivering their training sessions, seminars and workshops via the web and thus make them accessible to thousands of more potential attendees thanks to MediaSiteLive. The cost justification is measurable for anyone wanting to reach a large number of potential class attendees without the costs of a T-1 or ISDN connection line charge as MSL allows a presentation to be streamed live via any speed web connection, or archive the training on the 'net so that anyone with anything from a 56K connection to a high-speed DSL connection can access it 24/7.
Wireless network gear will converge into AV stuff: Sharp Electronics has even built in a WiFi antenna into their wireless presentation projectors. InFocus, NEC, Sony, Sanyo, Christie, Barco and now even Philips have wireless projectors that can both be controlled wirelessly or be used for wireless projection of virtually anything on my desktop computer or laptop screen to the projector without a single cable (except a power cable- of course). But, it hasn't stopped there. Crestron's 2003 introduction of the MediaManager - aimed squarely at Extron's MediaLink - is a fluid convergence of AV and IT systems management and signal routing. Capable of sending any Professional AV signal used in an integrated system (i.e. video, HDTV, s-video, RGBHV, XGA, SXGA, mic signals and audio signals) via standard Cat5e cable, the MediaManager uses a proprietary signal transport system Crestron calls QuickMedia to send those signals around a room for wall plates, pop-up boxes, system switchers and matrix switchers to projectors, plasmas and LCD monitors up to 400 feet.
And, now a host of third-party manufacturers famous for their networking gear are filling the Professional AV market with wired and wireless video, RGB and audio distribution boxes via a network. The best is a simple product from Komatsu called the Air Projector that takes computer-video and sends it wirelessly (real-time) to an XGA resolution projector up to 400-feet away. Watch for Linksys, 3Com and even HP to get into this market soon!
IT Managers will become the most influential decision makers in large corporations and universities: No one will argue this. The decision-making power shift from in-house AV departments to in-house IT departments actually started in 2002, but it went mainstream in 2003. Not only do few corporations even have an AV department any more, but the ones that do are reporting to the IT department. This is a big deal to our market as they (IT managers) buy cheap. They are accustomed to buying based on price. They seek and seek the cheapest solution to a problem. Next, they're not loyal. They're loyal to the cheapest seller - most of the time. They are loyal to manufacturer brands and models, especially software-oriented ones, but not loyal to the distribution channel. Finally, they aren't early adopters. They are tried and true buyers. Most IT managers don't like to be guinea pigs with new products, systems or technologies, so they love simplicity in design.
This can be, however, a good thing. Sure, the days of 30- and 40-point margins may be gone, but these people pay for security. And, not only the security you're thinking of. Sure they want secure systems and secure networks and they buy products that have built-in security to protect their network infrastructure, but they pay for job security. In large corporations and universities, IT managers are used to outsourcing network administration to a third-party. They don't want to have to work 24-hours a day, 365-days a year, so they pay for this element of security.
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